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What are the realistic threats I should be concerned about??

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What are the realistic threats I should be concerned about??

Postby ShawnW2448 » Wed Mar 16, 2016 5:15 am

Hello preppers! I have a question I hope you guys can answer. I've been looking around and trying to find what threats I should most be worried about. Whether it's the collapse of the economy, food shortages due to drought, etc. I know living in Washington, I need to prep for earthquakes, volcanic events, and occasionally wind and ice storms. What else should I be focusing on and is there any GOOD literature out there. I've been searching and have found many extreme doomsday article, but im looking for something more realistic. Anyone able to help? Thanks for your time!
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Re: What are the realistic threats I should be concerned abo

Postby NJMike » Wed Mar 16, 2016 5:32 am

My personal list of realistic likely threats:
Death (obvious not one to survive, but is one prepared for themselves and family)
Debilitating Health Issue
Financial Bankruptcy
Job Loss
Home Fire
Divorce

The above are not solved with many of the skills or gear we typically discuss here, but...are we prepared to deal with these things if/when they happen?
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Re: What are the realistic threats I should be concerned abo

Postby rebnavy1862 » Wed Mar 16, 2016 5:49 am

Read "Lights Out" by Ted Koppel. It is documentation of a devastating and quite likely event of a grid down situation that would encompass the entire US for a long period of time. Ted Koppel is a respected news commentator who presents convincing evidence for such an event happening and the consequences. Read it.
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Re: What are the realistic threats I should be concerned abo

Postby Drakenstead1 » Wed Mar 16, 2016 8:00 am

I would suggest that a good way to begin finding an answer to your question is to develop an understanding of the difference between possibility and probability

Possibility in its broadest definition basically includes everything. In what appears to be an infinite universe, all things are possible.
It seems to me that you can drive yourself insane trying to prepare for all possibilities.

Probability is essentially the most likely possibilities or perhaps those with a higher statistical chance of happening in a given environment and under given conditions.
Answering the question "What events are the most probable" and making reasonable preparations for those events is most likely the rational course.

My answer is to invoke my First Prepper Principal:
If a preparation does not enhance my life in the here and now it will not be of much use in an apocalyptic situation.

An example is the $400 Country Living Grain Mill. It provides us with fresh flour and excellent bread. The difference between fresh ground makes the investment worth the money. Our lives are enhanced in the here and now.
In addition, we have a tool that will be of actual use in a grid down situation.

Other examples:
Our Garden
Hand Tools & skills
Food Preserving equipment & skills
Self defense provisions
A deep larder
All of which enrich our life now & thus provide a means to deal with a multitude of possibilities

The question you have is valid but again I would suggest that looking at it in another fashion might be more productive
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Re: What are the realistic threats I should be concerned abo

Postby NJMike » Wed Mar 16, 2016 12:17 pm

I was running out the door this morning and would have expanded on my thoughts, but Drakenstead1's comments on probability and the subject title including "realistic threats" is why I placed the focus on personal vs. national/worldly issues.

If anyone here has read the late Dr. Stephen Covey's original 7 Habits book, there's the Concept of Circle of Influence and Circle of Concern. When people focus unduly on things that concern them, but over which they exhibit no control, they are less effective then focusing on things they can influence.

I apply that philosophy, or try my best to apply, when dealing with emergencies I prepare for. Consider a multilayer onion of concern issues radiating out from person, home, community, state, region, country, planet. Personal influence within each varies, as does the threats to each, and the ability needed to counter the threats. My first post dealt primarily with the core things that threaten the personal or the home status quo. Not only are they very probable, and therefore most realistic to prepare for, but also items that should be easiest to prepare for, where such preparations in advance are likely to be of use. Living will, smoke detectors, fire escape route, emergency contact numbers, backed up personal documents, health/life insurance, paid down debt, good nutrition and fitness, updated resume...those are all things I rarely see mentioned here, but I feel are worthy of discussion.

That aside, I wanted to add some threats also higher in probability but more in the community layer of the threat onion, depending on what's nearby (nuclear plants, rail lines, chemical plants, warehouses, factories, utility lines, high crime areas, high population areas):
Gas explosion
Plant explosion
Chemical release
Local radiological issue
Contaminated water
Local power outage
Wildfires
Active Shooter/Criminal Acts
Epidemic

Many of the above are solved for by short term evacuation, and having some manner of BOB. Several may require short term being prepared to shelter in place if necessary. Also important are having redundant means of communication, knowing personal evacuation route options, and a means of linking up with family and friends at an established rendezvous point(s). Examples of what I'd consider primary skills would be situational awareness, first aid, communications, water purification, food storage.

I know I still have a few things to work on from the above.

Finally, My comments are triggered by the word "realistic" applied to the threats we're most often found discussing. If I'm more likely to say when to a threat occurring vs. if, then it's a higher priority to prep for. Apologies to the OP if this is not what was being asked for.
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Re: What are the realistic threats I should be concerned abo

Postby jimLE » Sat Mar 19, 2016 6:00 pm

ShawnW2448 wrote:Hello preppers! I have a question I hope you guys can answer. I've been looking around and trying to find what threats I should most be worried about. Whether it's the collapse of the economy, food shortages due to drought, etc. I know living in Washington, I need to prep for earthquakes, volcanic events, and occasionally wind and ice storms. What else should I be focusing on and is there any GOOD literature out there. I've been searching and have found many extreme doomsday article, but im looking for something more realistic. Anyone able to help? Thanks for your time!


1st of all.congrats for not only for realizing that you need to prep,but doing so..you live in Washington.you know the area better then me.so,plan on what happens there.but i do know that you do get snowed in during the winter from to much snow and/or ice on the roads.and in some,if not most cases.no electric.so plan for them.back-up heat sources.extra foods that you already eat.a change in diet can reek havoc on the digestive track.extra water.maybe 3x more water then you think.it's to easy to run out.how many people within 5 block of you?,that is if you live in town.there could be civil unrest during times like that.so you need ways of staying safe.
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Re: What are the realistic threats I should be concerned abo

Postby Lifelong Survivalist » Sat Mar 19, 2016 6:05 pm

Hello Shawn W. In order to provide you with the information that I think you are seeking I will need to know what your geographic location there in Washington is, without you giving me your address or personal info. on this Forum or in a topic. Example: I live in the Helena, Montana area in a rural setting several miles East of the Continental Divide and several miles West of Canyon Ferry Lake. Something like that without breaking any site rules either. The description of my location covers an area of approx. 900 to 1000 square miles in size without pinpointing it, and there are between 15,000 and 35,000 residents in it. If you can do that in a post right here I will read it and begin to assess and address your concerns in a prioritized, categorized and somewhat organized manner. After that you should know what to begin prepping for right away and build on that through the lists. They best place to start is always at the beginning. I do not wish to waste your time or mine on things that are not very important or relevant at the moment. I get the feeling that you are a younger- 21 to 36 y.o. and that you have little to no experience as a prepper. In the meantime devote as much time as you can to browsing the various forums and topics that you can enter on this website, and read all of the new posts in your topic (here). People are here to both learn and share with you and each other, and help people in any way they can. When I have your general location I will write down notes and then post the results in a series of replies to you right here in your topic so that you can write them down or draft some prepper outlines and make notes. I devote a lot of my time to this site for both myself and others. Try to keep an open mind and keep your powder dry. :-)
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Re: What are the realistic threats I should be concerned abo

Postby daaswampman » Sat Mar 19, 2016 6:41 pm

The only actual universal threat that I can do much about is economic. The world's economy is already in a long downward spiral and it seems to be accelerating. Worrying about geologic events is a complete waste of time. They will happen give or take fifty thousand years or so. War or civil unrest totally depends on where you live. I live in an area that gets severe storms and I have a storm cellar. I would hope everyone has made some preparations for expected events. I doubt it much matters what starts the collapse, as the ending results would be the same. EMP and I have no lights, banking collapse and I have no lights, widespread civil unrest and I have no lights, Yellowstone goes and I have no lights, massive pandemic and I have no lights! Feel free to substitute food, water, etc., for lights!

NJMike makes great points that personal events may effect any of us at any time! Back to the cave Swamp
People rarely notice what it right in front of their eyes. The Da Vinci Code
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Re: What are the realistic threats I should be concerned abo

Postby Fyrediver » Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:40 pm

NJMike wrote:My personal list of realistic likely threats:
Death (obvious not one to survive, but is one prepared for themselves and family)
Debilitating Health Issue
Financial Bankruptcy
Job Loss
Home Fire
Divorce

The above are not solved with many of the skills or gear we typically discuss here, but...are we prepared to deal with these things if/when they happen?


Seriously, these are MUCH more likely than many other scenarios we discuss. More people lose their jobs than are taken by alien invaders or catch Ebola. If you've got 60 days of food that'll help quite a bit while unemployment kicks in and/or you get a new job. If you've got a couple months of income saved up and no credit card debt that'll help immensely!

Mundane issues ARE threats to the people having them, just not to their neighbors.
“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.” Charles Darwin
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Re: What are the realistic threats I should be concerned abo

Postby Halmic73 » Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:23 pm

I always recommend learning the Law of the 3-Ws.

It will help you know what to make as a priorith if your car breaks down, you get lost in the woods, or SHTF.
If you ain't got time to do it right the first time you won't have time to do it right the second time.
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Re: What are the realistic threats I should be concerned abo

Postby ajax727 » Sun Mar 20, 2016 12:48 pm

I have got to agree on the things we face or could face in life is at the top of my list the other things might happen but the odds are the little stuff has a greater odds of happening but should be covered .
I will add in one other factor and that is the elections . This could have an effect that can cause a large threat to our way of life and pose a threat that we might not be ready for .
To see things as they are not as they want you to see them .. With the stroke of a pen all you rights and freedom can end ...
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Re: What are the realistic threats I should be concerned abo

Postby daaswampman » Sun Mar 20, 2016 5:15 pm

ajax727 wrote:I have got to agree on the things we face or could face in life is at the top of my list the other things might happen but the odds are the little stuff has a greater odds of happening but should be covered .
I will add in one other factor and that is the elections . This could have an effect that can cause a large threat to our way of life and pose a threat that we might not be ready for .


Thanks ajax! I am glad I am not the only one deeply concerned about this election. I doubt it is the proverbial straw that breaks the beasts back, but I can't ignore the level of anger and mistrust on every side. A very sad State Of The Union! Swamp
People rarely notice what it right in front of their eyes. The Da Vinci Code
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Re: What are the realistic threats I should be concerned abo

Postby ajax727 » Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:29 pm

Well swamp in my short time of voting I have never seen the level of BS that we have now . The demo's are split between a progressive and a socialist but to me they are one and the same . The repubs are split they want to side with the political powers and not with the voters . They also want to split the party with the let's get Trump movement . Add in the demo's movement of protest against Trump at his rallies and it seems they are wanting Hillary to win . As you said they the repups and the demos are one and the same who only care about holding onto there power over the American people .
The state of America at this time is in sad shape racial unrest , the war on cops , the lie for the truth , enforcement of some laws but the non enforcement of other laws , the use of the pen to over step other laws , the overreach of power and the use of force to instill a power grab this is just a few things that are threats to our great nation ..+..
To see things as they are not as they want you to see them .. With the stroke of a pen all you rights and freedom can end ...
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Re: What are the realistic threats I should be concerned abo

Postby angie_nrs » Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:39 pm

NJMike wrote:My personal list of realistic likely threats:
Death (obvious not one to survive, but is one prepared for themselves and family)
Debilitating Health Issue
Financial Bankruptcy
Job Loss
Home Fire
Divorce

The above are not solved with many of the skills or gear we typically discuss here, but...are we prepared to deal with these things if/when they happen?


I agree with this. I think many people are largely unprepared for life in general......let alone any type of catastrophy. I would start just by putting some cash aside (don't neglect small bills and change). Then focus on the areas in every day life that you think are likely to happen in your life and in your area. Personally, I'm prepared for storms and I have prepared for the above scenarios....and continue to work on it all the time. But for me, I am mostly concerned about short term emergencies and not necessarily apocalypse type events. My hats off to those who are prepared to that extent, but money and time are factors in my world.....as well as taking some time in the present to enjoy and appreciate how blessed I am. Still, if you are prepared for the above events, you're WAY better off than most people I know. And, even though those above events are typically things people will have to prepare for on a continual basis, moving in the direction of a more simple life that may include gardening, canning, sewing, etc, are not only great skills, but very satisfying in the here and now......not to mention great healthy family activities. Keep it simple.
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Re: What are the realistic threats I should be concerned abo

Postby Lifelong Survivalist » Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:29 pm

Here's a realistic threat to everyone! The threat to the 2nd Amendment. (See my new topic) in political Forums. We should all be NRA members if we cherish our freedom or what's left of it. Freedom is not free and many Americans have paid for our freedom with their lives....W W II donchaknow? If they had failed, we would be living under Nazism and speaking German today (except for the Americans who ended up in concentration camps for extermination or worked to death in forced labor camps and factories). So if you are not already a member with paid up membership, join the NRA today. That's a threat we can deal with right now before it happens and prevent it from happening altogether. It doesn't matter whether you lean toward conservative, republican, llibertarian, liberal, democrat, or what. Freedom is for ALL of us. And we should all agree on that. Right?? Times a wastin' so don't put it off. :gunshooting: :thumbsup:
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