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The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

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Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby TRex2 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:17 pm

ForwardPreppers wrote:Ran across an article on Zero Hedge that shed a poor light on the state of the economy. The article goes over several reasons why the economy is not doing as well as we are being told. A couple of them that were of interest to me are:
...
Here is the link to the article if ya'll would like to read it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... -it-matter

I haven't read the article, but in general, I know he tells the truth. While I trust zerohedge for honesty, if you read his column, you might be led to believe disaster is a lot closer than it really is, simply because he underestimates the resilience of the US economy.

I will agree with him, that the US economy is not doing as well as we are being told, but we are doing better than we were. The stock market's recent plunge shows that. Someone asked about unemployment numbers. I would suggest ignoring them. The numbers to look at are the Labor Force Participation Rate. (around 62%) It has stubbornly refused to get better. Or at least refused to get much better.
Also, a very good friend of mine is a produce broker. I spoke to him a couple of days ago and he says the cost of trucking has gone up between 50-75% since the 1st of the year. Said to expect the prices of food to start going up soon. Another sign that things are not as good as we are being told.

FP

If you hear, again, from your friend in the
trucking business, I would like to know how
he feels now, after the tax cuts.
Calling Islam a religion isn't much different than calling Nazism or Communism a religion.
Both were also political movements with a religious component, just like Islam.
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Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby ForwardPreppers » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:51 pm

The trucking situation finally settled down. Texas first, then followed by California. It really had him spooked there for a bit that he was gonna struggle this year. Lord only knows what was really behind it all.

We agree with the Labor Participation Rate.

We have watched the market fly all over the place and are convinced someone is pulling the strings, it just isn't "normal". We are out of the market so we are just observers to all this madness.

Mr and Mrs FP
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Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby rickdun » Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:36 am

Inflation is on the rise, that's why the market is going crazy.

The rise of the 10yr/30yr notes, home sales have slowed, wages are raising, production is raising, oil prices raising, tax cuts, national debt 1 trillion higher, market correction, etc.. The feds are estimating 3 to 4 interest rate hikes this year, not good for people that want to get loans but good for people that have cd's.
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Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby TRex2 » Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:00 am

ForwardPreppers wrote:The trucking situation finally settled down. Texas first, then followed by California. It really had him spooked there for a bit that he was gonna struggle this year. Lord only knows what was really behind it all.
I suspect he was talking about the change over to electronic driver logs and new emissions rules, but I can't be sure. Those rules are often made by people who have no appreciation for the truckers and often are actually hostile to the trucking industry that puts stuff on their store shelves.

We have watched the market fly all over the place and are convinced someone is pulling the strings, it just isn't "normal". We are out of the market so we are just observers to all this madness.

Mr and Mrs FP
The dip in the markets that is happening right now is a normal correction, as they were a little over priced. Still are, but not as much. The changes aren't really that big. All of the talk about record numbers is to sell the news. The real deal is that the movements are less than 5% in any day, which would be barely newsworthy, and less than 10% dip overall, after a climb of substantially more than 20%.

I would expect more 5% moves this year.
It is just the way the markets behave in the 21st Century.

The reason the markets move so suddenly is all of the computer driven trading, aka high speed trading. The computers can move the market in a faction of a second, and when they do, some other computer will see the movement and react to that, moving it again. I am not completely out of the markets, but might be out by the end of 2018.
Calling Islam a religion isn't much different than calling Nazism or Communism a religion.
Both were also political movements with a religious component, just like Islam.
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Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby ForwardPreppers » Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:05 pm

We did have the log discussion early in the thread. That hasn't gone totally into practice yet so not sure if that was the cause. And it was only out of Texas and California. Glad it didn't last long enough to effect produce prices.

I am not so sure that computers can be blamed for the dramatic swings in the markets. But to each his own. I don't believe this is a healthy market by any stretch of the imagination. There are many contributing factors. I just hope that folks get out before it takes all of their savings. I don't begrudge anyone an opportunity to make money - go for it. We've chosen not to play at this time.

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Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby TRex2 » Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:12 pm

In Aug of 2015, the Dow dropped to 15,666. Allowing for 2% annual increases, if the Dow drops below 16666, then the markets will be in a panic sell off. That is my number. Most market analysts use the 200 day moving average, which, right now, is over 22000. I have to point out that it drops below that fairly often (every year or two).

As for a healthy market? What would be the criteria? When I took a class on banking and markets, the definition at that time is something we haven't seen since the 80's.

I heard, for the first time today, someone on national TV saying that the US might become unable to make payments on its bonds in another 10 to 20 years. Usually, the only guys you hear saying those words are people like Ron Paul. This was a market analyst. So, even if the economy continues to get better over the next few years, the very long term outlook is bleak. Or worse. But, the outlook for the next two years isn't all that bad (Not assured, of course, but not bad).
Calling Islam a religion isn't much different than calling Nazism or Communism a religion.
Both were also political movements with a religious component, just like Islam.
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Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby angie_nrs » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:45 pm

I agree Trex. Isn't it interesting that the MSM focuses on how many points the DOW dropped? So what? How about we talk about percentage drop. With where the market is now, the 1,000 point drop isn't a big deal, but they make it sound catastrophic! :rolleyes: The fear mongering they love to participate in is absurd.

Even though I'm changing to a less aggressive stance in my IRA, I'll never get completely out of the market. Now that the tax cuts have passed and things "seem" quieter (internationally speaking) I'm thinking this year and into next year may not be a bad time to be invested. When we see companies moving back here, then the economy will really pick up steam.....but so will inflation.

The only way to be truly prepared financially for anything is to diversify. And I don't mean just within the stock market. My retirement is not all dependent upon my IRA. I have other financial avenues to draw on as well, including hard assets. Plus, without debt, you don't really need a HUGE income if you are blessed with good health. I worry less about what happens in the market when I know there are other options to draw upon if need be.
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Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby TRex2 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:45 am

First, I want to apologize and say that somehow I missed the entire second page of this thread, so, if I stepped on anyone's toes or stole anyone's thunder, that is why.

Second, some of those posts included info that give me questions!

Dirk Williams wrote:Do you think it practical for all of Obama's wrongs to be corrected in one year? Foolish. While I support Trump, I also.recognize, that all we are getting with Donald in the WS, is more time.
...
Lastly Trump bought us time, I hope your using your time wisely. ...
Personally, I think that some of Obama's "wrongs" are nails in our coffin (going to be fatal). And I agree that Trump is buying us time, but that is all he bought us.

ForwardPreppers wrote:Thanks Dirk for weighing in. We were/are Trump supporters but we see things personally that tell us the economy is still in shambles and may not recover - anytime soon at least. We didn't expect a quick turn around as this has been going on so long that it has actually rewritten economic theory and accounting principles - which should be scary to most folks but doesn't seem to be.
I read after the election that a lot of preppers decided that the coast was now clear that Trump ...
Mrs FP
Just want to point out that the economy won't collapse in the near term, unless the public sees things clearly, but I suspect there is no danger of that.

Dirk Williams wrote:...
Our changes are ALL based on a ton of research. We use credit unions, not banks, because of G-7 banking changes a few years back.Credit Union rules are different, as their generally members owned. Not a corporation. So your money in your account is still your money, not an investment.
Ahhh, here is that question that came to my mind: I have seen second hand information on this "change" but can't find anything definitive. Can you give me a pointer?

The world debt is thought to be 227 trillion. Does anybody here think their was ever a plan to pay this down, much less off. It's physically not possible.
...
Dirk
I agree. In fact, my current calculations are that, without any help from people like Kim Jung Un, we will implode around 2030, even if our government makes a lot of "good decisions," just because, like the Edmund Fitzgerald, once the ship begins taking water over the side, and into the hatchway, it is pretty much lost, even without the socialists who want to cut holes in the side to let the water out of the ship.

Blondie wrote:While not a fan of mainstream financial news, CNBC has an artcle today that the Fed is out of ammunition to throw at the next recession. In 2019.

We have no budget and China is threatening to stop buying our debt today. The 10 yr Treasury is up to 2.55% today.
I suspect CNBC is correct about no ammunition. They have no crystal ball to know if that is 2019 or some other year, and I wouldn't worry about China attacking our economy. They have a swamp full of alligators to fight for themselves, and are finding out what a paper tiger is, in their own economy.

Dirk Williams nailed it when he said:
"China considers their position in the bond movement, a slight drop in day to day markets, then right back up.

Money is a shell game, as long as those in charge get to write and redefine the definitions to meet their objective. The way it is will,continue.
"

Dirk Williams wrote:... I'm feeling cautiously optimistic, in terms of Trump VS Obama, and money strategies, and direction.

I see a massive infastructure program during Trumps presidency. Not because of him, but because history demonstrates its going to happen. But then I also see a world war in the future.
...
DW
I agree with you here, though my timeline is probably different.
I don't see us making it past about 2030.
Calling Islam a religion isn't much different than calling Nazism or Communism a religion.
Both were also political movements with a religious component, just like Islam.
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