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Bugging out from near a Nuclear Detonation

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Bugging out from near a Nuclear Detonation

Postby TRex2 » Sun Dec 18, 2016 5:59 am

Yeah, I know this isn't a construction issue, but I don't seen anywhere else on the board where scientifically minded people are discussing anything like this.

Since I live a few miles from a secondary (or maybe even a tertiary) target for a nuclear attack, I have been thinking a bit on how to handle such an event, or even a lesser event that would force me to bug out, and hole up in a distant location until the radiation or other hazards die down.
(This is about 8th on my list of really bad things that might happen.)

I am not talking about a full scale nuclear exchange between superpowers, but the possibility that one of the "insane world" leaders might get someone to truck one in, in much the same fashion that drugs get trucked into the country.

Most likely yield for such a "trucked in" bomb would be 10KT to 30KT and it would be detonated on the ground. It would necessarily be heavily shielded to avoid the system of radiation detectors (that have been in place for several decades) and so the EMP effect would be seriously blunted. (For discussion of EMP, look into "Starfish Prime") A ground burst would, however be like a "dirty bomb" on steroids, and radioactive fallout would be extreme within several miles.

What I need to know is, how many minutes will my family have after the detonation, to Get Out Of Dodge? I already have plans, what to take and where to go, but I don't know if those plans would work - would there be enough time to escape?

Ideally, someone with a lot of physics and meteorological background could put together a minute by minute discussion of what happens after a nuclear detonation.

The best I have been able to come up with was done when the Castle Bravo ( a 15MT Thermonuclear device) detonation was done on Bikini Atoll. An account of what happened was written by one of the scientists that found himself trapped by unexpected fallout, 20 miles from the detonation site.
http://www.sonicbomb.com/content/atomic ... allout.pdf

That detonation was about 1000 times more powerful than what I expect a terrorist to be able to build and transport. From that and other data, however, I can do some really rough estimation, but I could be off by, easily, a factor of four or five times.

What I really expect happened, that the Castle Bravo team didn't take into account (since the test yielded about twice what they expected), was that debris that escaped the edge of the fireball at detonation would be hurled (and simultaneously vaporized) outward by the blast wave. Normally this would precipitate back to the earth within a couple miles, but because of the size of the blast (note the crater, exceeding 1 mile diameter) the immediate fallout reached out further than that.

I think I am just barely far enough out to escape that initial wave of fallout, and the prevailing wind's most common direction would carry most of the fallout away from me, but I would be on the edge of an area that would be contaminated by stuff falling from the mushroom plume during a time when the bomb would, basically, create its own weather pattern. (See why I mentioned at the beginning of this, that knowledge of both physics and meteorology would be needed to dissect this problem.)

I have more to post about some of my research,
but I need time to make my writing coherent.
Calling Islam a religion isn't much different than calling Nazism or Communism a religion.
Both were also political movements with a religious component, just like Islam.
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Re: Bugging out from near a Nuclear Detonation

Postby NJMike » Sun Dec 18, 2016 7:03 pm

Some information that may be useful to infer on timing:
http://www.oism.org/nwss/s73p912.htm

What I take from that, would be if you survived the blast, survived the heat wave, and presumably the initial radiation, and you see a big mushroom cloud you have to determine whether you can hole up/bug in with enough barriers to prevent radiation from imminent fallout, or you immediately bug out in the opposite direction as the prevailing wind as quickly as you can.

Some random thoughts/questions to think about:
1) Is your escape route shadowed by terrain from the target area?
2) Will escape route be blocked by debris, downed power lines, trees? (side note- it took me 2 hours to go 6 miles 4 days after Hurricane Sandy)
3) Any danger from secondary explosions and effects (e.g. gas lines, chemical plants)?
4) Do you have a means of detecting radiation, even if something basic like rad stickers?
5) Do you have a means to protect yourself from fallout particles (e.g.-disposable suit/masks/goggles)?
6) Do you have a means of decontamination (e.g.-portable pressured water tank, like a lawn sprayer)?
7) Are you willing to just flee, leaving most stuff behind, assuming this is a singular event?
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Re: Bugging out from near a Nuclear Detonation

Postby TRex2 » Sun Dec 18, 2016 7:43 pm

My responses will be in red

"NJMike: "Some information that may be useful to infer on timing:
http://www.oism.org/nwss/s73p912.htm
Thanks, I will look into that.

Some random thoughts/questions to think about:
1) Is your escape route shadowed by terrain from the target area?
For the most part.

2) Will escape route be blocked by debris, downed power lines, trees? (side note- it took me 2 hours to go 6 miles 4 days after Hurricane Sandy)
Should not be a problem at this distance.

3) Any danger from secondary explosions and effects (e.g. gas lines, chemical plants)?
Gas lines, maybe.

4) Do you have a means of detecting radiation, even if something basic like rad stickers?
No. Wouldn't have any affect on my plans anyway.

5) Do you have a means to protect yourself from fallout particles (e.g.-disposable suit/masks/goggles)?
Yes .

6) Do you have a means of decontamination (e.g.-portable pressured water tank, like a lawn sprayer)?
Yes.

7) Are you willing to just flee, leaving most stuff behind, assuming this is a singular event?
No choice, really.
Where I am, to stay is to die.

Not looking at whether or not I should bug out, but simply looking for how long I will have
(actually, how long someone else will have - I can be gone in 30 seconds)
Calling Islam a religion isn't much different than calling Nazism or Communism a religion.
Both were also political movements with a religious component, just like Islam.
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Re: Bugging out from near a Nuclear Detonation

Postby TRex2 » Tue Dec 20, 2016 7:13 pm

I have found several videos that show a nuclear detonation in progress. And from those videos and other resource, I have been able to make a rough assessment of the timeline of events following a 10KT to 20 KT ground burst.

My imagined scenario is that a tractor trailer carrying a nuclear device is loaded on a truck and encased in 20 tones of concrete and sand or dirt to shield it from sensors that might detect it near the point of entry into North America. The truck is then shipped to somewhere, where it is unloaded and driven to the place where it is detonated.

In my case, there is intervening high ground and structures to blunt the shockwaves so I would expect nothing beyond broken windows and such for immediate damage.

The timeline I have estimated is:

First 10 Seconds
Flash is seen, and a shockwave is created in the ground which radiates outwards at around a mile per second. The fireball vaporizes everything within several hundred yards, creating a pressurized shock wave that moves outwards at about one quarter mile per second.

Second 10 Seconds
The fireball begins to rise, causing a vacuum under it, sucking debris into a column that forms the stem of the mushroom cloud. This debris and the debris that got driven out from near the edge of the fireball, by the shockwave, returns to the ground as radioactive fallout near ground zero in only a few minutes. The fireball radiates intense heat and gamma radiation, causing fires to erupt for hundreds of yards beyond what was already vaporized by the initial blast, although there won't be much to catch fire unless, for some reason, it was shielded from the shockwaves.

Third 10 Seconds
By this time, the ground shockwave has diminished, but the fireball continues to rise, and continues to be a radioactive threat to the surrounding area.

Next 30 Seconds
The fireball continues to rise, but now debris that was not vaporized is beginning to fall from it and the column under it.

The blast damage has mostly already occurred, and most of the physical danger is over.

Second Minute
The blast wave is little more than a loud noise at this point. The "mushroom cloud" is nearing its maximum height, and is more than 3 miles high, and nearly a mile across making it visible for miles around. It has effected wind directions and speed for more than a mile around (I don't know how far out).

Third Minute
More of the same as the second minute. Particles are now beginning to fall from the cloud for about a mile around, but since it is more than 3 miles up, it will take a while to return to the earth. Since the heat from the blast is still affecting local winds, this fallout will not be much affected by natural wind, and will fall in basically a circular area for ?? miles (yeah, I don't really know how far this would be) around the blast site.

Fourth thru 10th Minutes
The "mushroom cloud" reaches its maximum height of around 5 miles, and is begins to drift, as the natural high altitude wind begins to move it.

From Ten to 20 Minutes
Particles falling from the radioactive cloud, up to this time, would be (mostly) visible to the naked eye, appearing like fine dust and acting like ash.

From 20 to 40 Minutes
By now, the particles falling will be so fine as to not be, individually, visible to the naked eye (they might appear as a haze if you are looking across a sufficient distance) A mask rated N95 will still provide adequate airway protection, protection for all other parts of the body, especially the eyes is also necessary.

From 40 minutes to 4 hours
The radio active fallout increasingly contaminates an area downwind from the blast site.
It contaminates an area about 5 ? miles wide and up to 40 miles long.

From 4 hours to 100 hours
The radiation peaks and begins to decay. For those in the danger zone, shelter is everything. This is the most dangerous time for people who are in the contaminated zone, but hiding inside inadequate shelters. For those in adequate shelters, this is the time they need to remain in the shelter.

As I have stated before, I could be off in my time assessment,
Being off by a factor of four would not surprise me.

I will show my resources for this timeline in my next post.
Calling Islam a religion isn't much different than calling Nazism or Communism a religion.
Both were also political movements with a religious component, just like Islam.
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Re: Bugging out from near a Nuclear Detonation

Postby TRex2 » Tue Dec 20, 2016 7:38 pm

Resources for the timeline:

There is a multipart tutorial on surviving a nuclear attack, and there
is some good info in it but I think the guy is just winging it.
Here is part 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kOU0uusKPE

I noticed right away, he says "nucular" instead of nuclear,
but most of his info in this one seems good.
I didn't really notice anything way off.

Here is part 2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZSTBv4EWnU

He really over estimates travel distance - he says you will need to travel
at least 100 miles to be out of the fallout zone. Since he is so wrong here,
I saw no need to watch any further of his videos.

From a posted bio, Irwin Redlener is a pediatrician and public health
activist who specializes in health care for underserved children, health
care reform, and disaster planning, response, and recovery. He is the
author of Americans at Risk: Why We Are Not Prepared for Megadisasters
and What We Can Do Now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tW7IgKJWtqk

The beginning of this video has some scholarly historical discussion
and gives history of the problem of survival planning.
However, when he shows how big the uranium is, as an example of how
easy is would be to steal it he doesn't include shielding. He seems to be
unaware of the nuclear materials screen that exists in many places
around the perimeter of our country. (It has been there for decades,)
At 17 minutes he begins to discuss an actual scenario, and overall, his
discussion is good, but he gets it wrong on the blast radius.
Seriously wrong.
So that leads me to question if he would get the fallout right.
The end of his video is, of course, rainbows and unicorns politics.

In this video, a test was done to see the effects of a nuclear detonation
on a battle field, and they had soldiers march into ground zero,
right after the blast. Yeah, the government was that stupid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWSMoE3A5DI
In this video, we can see that even after a minute or two, the cloud
is still rising. At the end, there is about 50 seconds of continuous
footage of the mushroom cloud rising.

This one shows that China did worse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGhWB2px99g

I have been studying this topic for years, so my basic foundation is good,
but I still lack specifics on some elements of the equations.
Calling Islam a religion isn't much different than calling Nazism or Communism a religion.
Both were also political movements with a religious component, just like Islam.
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Re: Bugging out from near a Nuclear Detonation

Postby NJMike » Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:02 pm

If it will help further, I forgot to provide this link (maybe you've seen it) that provides detonation modeling.
http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

You can select location, and size of weapon, or a preset. There is fallout selectable within the advanced options that lets you set % of fission and wind speed. Some explanation is in the next link, along with a good description of the primary sources if you want to explore finding those for more insights than presented in the modeling.

http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/faq/#fallout
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Re: Bugging out from near a Nuclear Detonation

Postby Myakka » Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:03 pm

Doesn't wind come in to play? From seasonal jet stream flow to fronts, and topographical winds, so many factors to consider....
[i]"Oh, America. I wish I could tell you that this was still America, but I've come to realize that you can't have a country without people. And there are no people here. No, my friends. This is now the United States of Zombieland"
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Re: Bugging out from near a Nuclear Detonation

Postby TRex2 » Wed Dec 21, 2016 7:20 am

NJMike wrote:If it will help further, I forgot to provide this link (maybe you've seen it) that provides detonation modeling.
http://nuclearsecrecy.com/

Thanks. That is, indeed, the information I needed.
I will, hopefully soon, get to the task of updating my model
to show how much time someone would have to bug out.

by Myakka » Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:03 pm

Doesn't wind come in to play? From seasonal jet stream flow to fronts, and topographical winds, so many factors to consider....
The stuff on this thread will be, out of necessity, simplified.
If you want detailed information, you can probably
find (or deduce it) on the website linked above.
Calling Islam a religion isn't much different than calling Nazism or Communism a religion.
Both were also political movements with a religious component, just like Islam.
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Re: Bugging out from near a Nuclear Detonation

Postby danthman114 » Wed Dec 21, 2016 7:44 am

Best thing you can do is find out which direction the prevailing winds are for a given time of year and go off of that. After that it's guesswork. When where it will happen is up for debate. For full exchange, there isn't many places that will be safe.
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Re: Bugging out from near a Nuclear Detonation

Postby TRex2 » Wed Dec 21, 2016 8:48 am

danthman114 wrote:Best thing you can do is find out which direction the prevailing winds are for a given time of year and go off of that. After that it's guesswork. When where it will happen is up for debate. For full exchange, there isn't many places that will be safe.

Full exchange is very unlikely, but the scenario I described above is pretty realistic.

Wind patterns? No problem, got that part covered.

I already know where (I am sitting several miles from
a well known target), but when is anybodies guess.
I estimate about 3% chance in any one year.
Kinda like rolling dice. When will they come up "snake eyes"?
Could happen the first time you roll them, or you
might roll them 30 times without it happening.
Calling Islam a religion isn't much different than calling Nazism or Communism a religion.
Both were also political movements with a religious component, just like Islam.
TRex2
 
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Location: Central Texas
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