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So for investors who hold physical gold and silver, 2017 sho

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Re: So for investors who hold physical gold and silver, 2017

Postby rickdun » Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:54 pm

Cast Iron, are you having a bad day, kick back and have a beer on me.
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Re: So for investors who hold physical gold and silver, 2017

Postby sageprice » Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:28 pm

rickdun wrote:I'm not disagreeing with you CI, but what if you happen to get shot going into those abandon homes, stores. What if all your supplies are diminshed or die off or stolen and you have nothing for trade but PM's. As far as change, to get a meal for me and family or get medical attention, etc., when I have nothing else to trade but PM's, I'm not going to ask for change, I'm going to eat, get some medical supplies, ammo, etc., I'm not going to worry about change, it's a tip for the ones that I get it from.

We have enough food, supplies, medical supplies, anti-biotics, clothing, coal, firewood, ammo, guns, seeds, chickens, cattle, etc. to last years, but I also have PM's when it's all gone or stolen. I may be wrong, but I'm trying to cover all bases.

If after a year and 90% of the population is dead (I've heard as high as 99%), then I'll be one lonely rich guy, if I survive.


If they steal your supply, what to stop them from stealing your PMs or your life?
Gold and silver only have value if you can trade it. If the dollar fails then one gold coin is worth one gold coin. You are not protecting your future you are deluding your self. The value of PM is dependent on what value society place on it. 90% die off, no law, no paper money, very few people to trade with, and they are willing to kill you first. In a massive SHTF event, the three necessities come first. You can talk about getting shot looting, but ten years out when people finally come out from hiding people will trade for things that are not useless to survive with. A good ax, salt, ammo, fresh eggs and sewing needles. Gold will take up to a hundred years to regain its value. In reality gold and silver are only as good as the monetary system. No monetary no value.
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Re: So for investors who hold physical gold and silver, 2017

Postby Gunns » Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:47 pm

sageprice wrote:
rickdun wrote:I'm not disagreeing with you CI, but what if you happen to get shot going into those abandon homes, stores. What if all your supplies are diminshed or die off or stolen and you have nothing for trade but PM's. As far as change, to get a meal for me and family or get medical attention, etc., when I have nothing else to trade but PM's, I'm not going to ask for change, I'm going to eat, get some medical supplies, ammo, etc., I'm not going to worry about change, it's a tip for the ones that I get it from.

We have enough food, supplies, medical supplies, anti-biotics, clothing, coal, firewood, ammo, guns, seeds, chickens, cattle, etc. to last years, but I also have PM's when it's all gone or stolen. I may be wrong, but I'm trying to cover all bases.

If after a year and 90% of the population is dead (I've heard as high as 99%), then I'll be one lonely rich guy, if I survive.


If they steal your supply, what to stop them from stealing your PMs or your life?
Gold and silver only have value if you can trade it. If the dollar fails then one gold coin is worth one gold coin. You are not protecting your future you are deluding your self. The value of PM is dependent on what value society place on it. 90% die off, no law, no paper money, very few people to trade with, and they are willing to kill you first. In a massive SHTF event, the three necessities come first. You can talk about getting shot looting, but ten years out when people finally come out from hiding people will trade for things that are not useless to survive with. A good ax, salt, ammo, fresh eggs and sewing needles. Gold will take up to a hundred years to regain its value. In reality gold and silver are only as good as the monetary system. No monetary no value.


I disagree. With 20,000 years of history gold has remained the currency of kings and will remain so.
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Re: So for investors who hold physical gold and silver, 2017

Postby Matte » Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:03 pm

Saw this referenced elsewhere, Markets, Distribution, and Exchange after Societal Cataclysm.

It's somewhat dated but the different scenarios it presents makes sense in my unlearned opinion. If you're in a hurry skip to chapter 7 ("The Worst Case"). But the "Resource Abundance" or "Institution Intensive" scenarios may be more likely if you live in rural/agricultural or an urban area, respectively.

Very dry reading, maybe best saved for a rainy day ( :) ) but I thought it was informative and a good starting point for a rational/responsible discussion on how barter and markets might work following a disaster. Gold isn't always best for example, and yes you will still have to pay taxes (with something, to somebody).
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Re: So for investors who hold physical gold and silver, 2017

Postby Cast Iron » Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:29 pm

rickdun wrote:Cast Iron, are you having a bad day, kick back and have a beer on me.


Ok, RickDun, that made me laugh.

Will do! :)
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Re: So for investors who hold physical gold and silver, 2017

Postby RayMac1963 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 5:56 pm

Gunns wrote:Its not about the allure. Its about those people that have a life times of savings to protect. You can only buy so much prepper stuff. Bullets fail, rifles rust, food goes bad, water gets old and medicines age. But PM's will always maintain there worth.


I would adjust that to "some" worth. Anyway, i kind of agree with Cast on this one. The only metal i have are Roosevelt dimes. They are trade-able, not easily counterfeited so most people agree on their value, and they are a nice size/value for exchange. I am always adding to my stock, but they are mainly to barter for fuel if i headed south. SHTF, i'm not trusting some joker trying to trade me a gold ingot for a case of MREs.
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Re: So for investors who hold physical gold and silver, 2017

Postby daaswampman » Thu Feb 16, 2017 6:57 pm

Gold has held value in all of human history. Even when the human population was a tiny fraction of what it is today. Nor is there a documented period in human history, when some type of monetary system did not exist.

It is fiat currencies that lose value. After the fall of Roman Empire, it's coinage was widely used for hundreds of years. There is ample evidence that even its non silver or gold coins were used, because there were few if any alternatives. That makes a good case for saving copper pennies and nickels which can still be had for face value.

Few people have ever experienced barter. Exchanging a few things with friends and neighbors is not real barter. Try getting fair value or making change using eggs or vegetables. The biggest problem is finding something they want for something you need! Chances are most people will be looking for the same things and will not have anything you need. Swamp
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Re: So for investors who hold physical gold and silver, 2017

Postby ajax727 » Fri Feb 17, 2017 7:46 am

As stated before you can't eat PM's , but they can be traded for food , water or other items . I think you should have a balance in your prepping so PM fill that gap . The value of a coin compared to the value of a bag of rice or beans could be short sided it will be based upon how hungry you are or your family is . So just say you have a bag of sliver coins and I have a barrel of rice and beans if you are hungry the coins have no value when you have not eaten in a few days . a cup of rice for a sliver dime a cup of beans for a sliver dime and that can of treat meat or spam it is a 4 sliver quarter per can oh forgot the water it is worth 4 quarters a pint .
All I am say is yes Pm hold a value but food and water hold a higher value based upon your will and desire to live a little longer or your family to live a little longer .
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Re: So for investors who hold physical gold and silver, 2017

Postby eochief66 » Fri Feb 17, 2017 8:42 am

daaswampman wrote:Gold has held value in all of human history. Even when the human population was a tiny fraction of what it is today. Nor is there a documented period in human history, when some type of monetary system did not exist.

It is fiat currencies that lose value. After the fall of Roman Empire, it's coinage was widely used for hundreds of years. There is ample evidence that even its non silver or gold coins were used, because there were few if any alternatives. That makes a good case for saving copper pennies and nickels which can still be had for face value.

Few people have ever experienced barter. Exchanging a few things with friends and neighbors is not real barter. Try getting fair value or making change using eggs or vegetables. The biggest problem is finding something they want for something you need! Chances are most people will be looking for the same things and will not have anything you need. Swamp


Thanks Swamp! That is what is being forgotten here, gold, silver, copper and even paper are a medium of exchange! The guy you want to trade with might not need your potatoes, ammo, or grains. But he knows others that will take a recognized medium of exchange for what he needs, and so on and so forth!
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Re: So for investors who hold physical gold and silver, 2017

Postby Matte » Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:10 am

In the scramble for surviving resources, survivors may develop a domestic mode of production in which currency will be displaced by barter for exchanges of subsistence goods and a system of fixed allocations may be established. Currency is likely to be confined to the prestige sphere, or for obtaining particularly lumpy goods, and probably will consist of precious metals and gems.


From the article I posted a link to above. That's the researchers conclusion based on studies of prior events, history may not repeat but it often rhymes.

A few rifle cartridges for a few eggs, some batteries for a blanket, boot repair in exchange for a few pounds of salt, that is subsistence type bartering. It will likely occur between neighbors or those in close proximity very early following a collapse. Later, once some order and security and a means for dispute arbitration exists, then in peasant marketplaces set up for trading subsistence type goods. Hand to mouth existence stuff, small quantities of silver might be useful here.

Lumpy goods/services would be things like medical services, land or homes, multiple head of cattle, getting your 1000 gallon propane or diesel tank refilled, a new tractor, or a winter's worth of split firewood. Prestige is power within the group, clan, or community, the ability to influence people and get favorable outcomes in disputes. It might be fun to fantasize about the stupid rich people or clueless community leaders begging you to take their luxury items in exchange for a loaf of bread, but it's not very realistic. At least some of their pre-collapse prestige will carry over initially and they'll be trying to organize people and resources, whether you're seen as one of the organizers or one of the organizees (is that a word?) depends on your prestige.

And there's going to be black markets, even during the siege of Leningrad when some had resorted to cannibalism there was still food for purchase if you could afford it. If you want larger quantities of rationed or contraband items, or extra ration cards, this is probably where you'll need to shop.

If you can afford to pay cash for expensive prestige/lumpy goods now, without using payment plans or insurance or credit, and you want to be able to continue to do so following a major societal collapse, that's where gold is likely to be your best bet. This is how I see it paying out in a sudden societal collapse anyway, within a few weeks some structure (not necessarily good) will start to take shape out of the chaos.
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Re: So for investors who hold physical gold and silver, 2017

Postby sageprice » Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:59 pm

You all think that there will be someone setting a market some where. Phzzt! the first trade will happen when you bump into another surviver like you. As your contacts widen you will agree to set up a meeting place to exchange goods and someone to maintain order. Already you are talking 5 to 10 years. Where are your kings. The bible tells you that KINGS take your wealth in taxes and steals your daughters. You better beware of attracting such a monster with you horde of gold, should you live that long.
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Re: So for investors who hold physical gold and silver, 2017

Postby anita » Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:35 pm

I'm entering this fray one more time. I don't think PMs are the first prep you should buy, or even the second or third or tenth.
However, once you have what you need, then having some PMs is appropriate. Just as I don't want to have all my savings in one mutual fund or one stock, I don't want to have all my preps in one thing. Rice and ammo are good to have stored, no doubt.. Toilet Paper is a must. But it only lasts so long. If you have more than enough rice or beans or ammo, that's when you look at PMs. No one knows what might happen, or what might be of great (or little) value.

Within PMs, you wouldn't hold all gold. To me gold is good for retaining some of your "wealth" (If you want to consider it that) no matter what happens. You wouldn't use it if you didn't have to until commerce was re-established. Then gold might be something that has retained its value and give you some portion of what you once owned.

Silver is more easily traded, because it isn't as valuable. Junk silver coins would be good for "buying/bartering." They are easily recognizable, as Ray said (whether you get dimes or quarters) and the value can be easily established.

I don't plan to buy a dozen eggs or a bucket of rice with a gold coin. But I could use junk silver for that, if necessary. I might use gold to buy a piece of land, or perhaps a couple of horses (who knows).

It's called not putting all your eggs in one basket.
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Re: So for investors who hold physical gold and silver, 2017

Postby MrDanB » Fri Feb 17, 2017 8:04 pm

Precious metals are not for everyone. This is apparent by the comments here. The same 1/4 oz gold coin will buy today what it bought 100 years ago. The value is intrinsic and fungible. The value of paper dollars (Federal Reserve Notes) goes up and down. Currently, the US dollar has lost over 90% of it's buying power. Historically, as the dollar goes up in "value", the metals go down (and vice versa).
When I was a youngster, silver was running under 5 bucks a troy ounce. It's at 18 today. On top of how well it's done for me personally, it's value is manipulated by Wall Street. It SHOULD be running at 170+ per troy ounce by todays weakened dollar! If/when the manipulation ends, it will skyrocket! If the dollar further tanks, it will skyrocket. China has had their AIIB and precious metals exchange open for a while now. They are valuing metals higher than we do here in the US. When the disparity becomes glaringly obvious to US investors, they will want to pull their paper metal assets and invest in Asian markets. The problem is that they only do business in physical precious metals, not paper.
Now, having said all of that... During the Weimar Republic financial crisis, those who had a little handful of gold coins faired well through it (see chart)
WeimarGoldprices.jpg
WeimarGoldprices.jpg (52.34 KiB) Viewed 1410 times
. Some smart investors even thrived during their collapse. It is rumored that 25 ounces of gold in those days would have bought an entire city block of downtown Berlin! Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Bosnia, Greece etc the line of failing paper currencies around the globe is LONG! In each of those countries, if you had just a handful of gold or a few hundred ounces of silver, you could get through just fine. I do not collect gold and silver coins/bullion to eat it! That would just be silly. I collect it because I work hard and I want some buying value and power to my future purchases. I want to know that my hard work was not in vain! If I need cash, I take some coins down to a bullion vendor and trade them in for cash money. There will always be someone willing to take gold or silver in trade or barter...
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Re: So for investors who hold physical gold and silver, 2017

Postby anita » Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:44 pm

This from a couple of years ago. The Chinese are encouraging their citizens to buy gold.

http://investmentwatchblog.com/china-is ... od-stamps/

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/279166
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Re: So for investors who hold physical gold and silver, 2017

Postby daaswampman » Sat Feb 18, 2017 8:01 pm

A question for all those who want to discredit gold and silver - where would you put a savings of a few mil or so and you already have all the usual? It seems those who want to discredit pm's, are the same people who can't afford them.

Rice, beans, and a few tools is not an option if your successful and have anything to protect. If I didn't have any money, I would not be interested in gold and silver, just like I would not own stocks, land I don't live on, or other things that may go up in value. I would not take cooking advice from someone who can't cook? Same reason I fired a financial adviser when I found out he had less money than I did. That is why people with money make more money and poor stay poor. Swamp
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