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H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

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H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

Postby ReadyMom » Sat Mar 04, 2017 10:39 am

This news reminds me of back in 2006, when I was following the H5N1 flu.

The raging bird flu in China is a good reminder the US isn't prepared for a pandemic
The virus has a fatality rate of up to 40 percent.

A strain of deadly bird flu that has a high risk of becoming a pandemic is surging in China, and experts are warning that the US isn’t making the necessary preparations.

According to an assessment from the World Health Organization this week, China had 460 lab-confirmed human cases of the H7N9 bird flu virus since last October — the most of any flu season since the virus was first reported in humans in 2013.
This makes the current outbreak the largest on record for H7N9, a virus that typically circulates around poultry markets and can cause pneumonia or death when it spreads to people. Forty percent of those with confirmed H7N9 infections have died — including at least 87 people this year alone. That’s a very deadly pathogen.

The risk of the current outbreak causing a global epidemic is low right now, the WHO said. Almost all of the current infections were caught directly from birds and there’s no evidence yet of ongoing human-to-human transmission. But whenever bird flu spreads to people, there’s always the worry that it will mutate to become more contagious.

The people most at risk of H7N9 virus right now are poultry workers in China. Vietnam should also be on guard; reports suggest the virus has surfaced there as well.

But if this H7N9 outbreak were to spread further, experts say the United States is not ready.
“America has long been unprepared for a dangerous pandemic, but the risks are especially high under President Trump,” the former Ebola czar Ron Klain told Vox.

Trump hasn’t yet named nominees for a new head to the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention, the agency that would lead a pandemic response. He also hasn’t nominated anyone to head Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, or USAID — two other key agencies in a pandemic.

With the repeal of the Affordable Care Act looming, Trump is poised to gut a key public health fund that accounts for 12 percent of the CDC’s budget, and he’s reinstated the global gag rule, which depletes global health funding. “His proposed cuts in foreign aid,” Klain added, “will devastate work to detect and combat disease outbreaks abroad — the very best way to prevent those diseases from coming to America.”

If it’s not a bird flu outbreak, it’ll be some other health threat. The pace at which pathogens are flying around the globe and threatening pandemics is only accelerating. Over the past decade, the WHO has declared four global health emergencies. Two of them happened during President Obama’s tenure (Ebola and Zika). There’s slim chance Trump will finish a four-year term without facing an outbreak of some kind.

As for H7N9, it’s very possible it could spread to birds and people in other countries, said Dr. Tim Uyeki, a medical epidemiologist in CDC’s influenza division.

“Among the viruses we’ve assessed... H7N9 is the most concerning. It’s at the top of the list,” Uyeki said. “We don’t know when the next pandemic is going to start, where it’s going to start. But at this time the biggest concern is the H7N9 virus.”

Treating the current cases is also proving to be a challenge since some seem to carry genetic markers associated with drug resistance to antiviral treatments for the disease, like Tamiflu. A new assessment from the CDC also shows the virus has also split into a new lineage — which is a problem because the vaccine development for H7N9 was based on an older lineage of the virus. So we don’t have any vaccine candidates in the pipeline to fully address the current outbreak.
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Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

Postby rickdun » Sat Mar 04, 2017 10:51 am

Thanks for the heads up ReadyMom, I googled how many people enter the US each day from via forgein countries and it showed 325,000 people enter our airports on a daily basis from other countries, I'm sure most are US citizens returning from other countries. It may be just a matter of time before it gets here. What's really stunning is that 40% that get the H7N9 die, now that's scary.
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Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

Postby Illini Warrior » Sat Mar 04, 2017 10:56 am

been following the pandemic in China - most likely will be the Ground Zero for the disease spread - and China won't be reporting the truth ....

https://flutrackers.com/forum/search?se ... e%22%5D%7D
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Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

Postby ReadyMom » Sat Mar 04, 2017 11:22 am

Illini Warrior wrote:been following the pandemic in China - most likely will be the Ground Zero for the disease spread - and China won't be reporting the truth ....

https://flutrackers.com/forum/search?se ... e%22%5D%7D


:thumbsup: Flutrackers is a VERY reliable source to follow this. GREAT newshounds that are on top of current events. -k
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Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

Postby Illini Warrior » Sat Mar 04, 2017 3:00 pm

ReadyMom wrote:
Illini Warrior wrote:been following the pandemic in China - most likely will be the Ground Zero for the disease spread - and China won't be reporting the truth ....

https://flutrackers.com/forum/search?se ... e%22%5D%7D


:thumbsup: Flutrackers is a VERY reliable source to follow this. GREAT newshounds that are on top of current events. -k




and I always recommend a medical info site when we talk pandemic - http://www.emergencyhomepreparation.org/index.php
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Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

Postby donba » Sat Mar 04, 2017 4:28 pm

I noticed they are already blaming Trump, to bad they aren't blaming the dam's for holding up the appointments......
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Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

Postby daaswampman » Sat Mar 04, 2017 5:37 pm

460 cases over five months is not much of an epidemic for a nation of over a billion people! When it reaches that many cases a day, there may be cause for concern. I am not saying it is not an important bug, but when the right bug comes alone, there will be thousands of cases a day. Even then you will have some warning unless you live in an international hub city and are in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The problem with overreacting to everything, is you may miss the real deal when it comes along. Swamp
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Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

Postby oldasrocks » Sat Mar 04, 2017 6:39 pm

I'd bet a dollar to a donut that the vast majority of cases in china are not reported at all. Plus the fact china tends to downplay anything bad. I'll have to ask a few chinese friends what they hear from home.

Human bird flu is not the main problem here anyway. It's food. Kill off substantial chickens and add to the fact the oceans are being depleted fast and it leaves you with a major famine problem worldwide. Chicken, ducks and geese represent a large portion of the daily protein diet of the chinese people.

As an example we have family in Taiwan where food prices are soaring. They have cut off imports from Japan since some of the received imports have been radioactive. One carrot can cost $4. US or 120 NT. One stem of broccoli $3. US . one potato $2 US., 4 thighs at KFC, $17 US., one 4 ounce fish $2, US. or 600 NT. One small whole raw chicken about $20 US. The poor people are screaming. Exchange rate is about 32 NT to one US dollar. Grain foods are still reasonable. These prices are up several hundred percent over what they were a couple years ago. My wife goes over to spend some time with her dad every winter.
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Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

Postby daaswampman » Sat Mar 04, 2017 7:13 pm

oldasrocks wrote:I'd bet a dollar to a donut that the vast majority of cases in china are not reported at all. Plus the fact china tends to downplay anything bad. I'll have to ask a few chinese friends what they hear from home.

Human bird flu is not the main problem here anyway. It's food. Kill off substantial chickens and add to the fact the oceans are being depleted fast and it leaves you with a major famine problem worldwide. Chicken, ducks and geese represent a large portion of the daily protein diet of the chinese people.

As an example we have family in Taiwan where food prices are soaring. They have cut off imports from Japan since some of the received imports have been radioactive. One carrot can cost $4. US or 120 NT. One stem of broccoli $3. US . one potato $2 US., 4 thighs at KFC, $17 US., one 4 ounce fish $2, US. or 600 NT. One small whole raw chicken about $20 US. The poor people are screaming. Exchange rate is about 32 NT to one US dollar. Grain foods are still reasonable. These prices are up several hundred percent over what they were a couple years ago. My wife goes over to spend some time with her dad every winter.


Thanks Rock! I have read the same thing and it is a huge problem, one that will soon come our way. At the moment food is dirt cheap in America due to the inflated value of the dollar. Swamp
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Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

Postby ReadyMom » Sat Mar 04, 2017 7:45 pm

daaswampman wrote:460 cases over five months is not much of an epidemic for a nation of over a billion people! When it reaches that many cases a day, there may be cause for concern. I am not saying it is not an important bug, but when the right bug comes alone, there will be thousands of cases a day. Even then you will have some warning unless you live in an international hub city and are in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The problem with overreacting to everything, is you may miss the real deal when it comes along. Swamp


Agreed with your statement regarding over reacting. Hope you didn't that was my intent on posting this, regarding a pandemic potential. I just think we should should be aware and know this is nasty, killing bug over there.

I think what is important (and I know you follow these things) is that OF THE PEOPLE it HAS infected ... 40% of them have died. Granted that's NOT 40% of the TOTAL country's population ... but 40% kill ratio for those who have gotten infected is substantial. IF this virus happens to go H2H ('human-to-human'), then that 40% is a pretty big deal and it will take little to nothing to make that % even bigger. -k
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Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

Postby oldasrocks » Sat Mar 04, 2017 7:56 pm

Well the Pope did say it would be a better earth is we disposed of 6 billion people.
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Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

Postby farmer_dude48 » Sun Mar 05, 2017 10:27 am

Google RSOE-EDIS it has a bird flu map of the world and updates every 5 min. Lots of information :thumbup:
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Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

Postby donba » Sun Mar 05, 2017 4:10 pm

Oldasrocks; are you sending any food over to them. Dehydrated would seam to be the way to go.
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Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

Postby oldasrocks » Sun Mar 05, 2017 5:57 pm

The freight on food would be horrible. They only know how to fix fresh stuff anyway. If you ever want to experience Heaven go over there and eat a fresh off the vine pineapple.
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Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

Postby rickdun » Mon Mar 06, 2017 5:08 am

The WSJ and Reuters reported that 73,500 chickens were put down due to the bird flu (tyson chicken) in Tennessee. They also stated that Lincoln County in Tennessee is now under quarantine.

Maybe coming to a neighborhood near you.
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